- ¶ Radical uncertainty (King and Kay)
- Situations of radical uncertainty cannot be resolved through probabilistic thinking alone
- People cope rather than optimize
- Cognitive biases help navigate uncertainty
- Narratives should be credible and coherent but not necessarily true
- Narratives enable us to act decisively in conditions of uncertainty
- ¶ Issue, rule, analysis, conclusion (IRAC)
- Different kinds of uncertainty
- Volatile environments motivate us to avoid uncertainty
- Narratives generate real-world effects.
- ≈ Shiller - Narrative Economics
Kay, John, and Mervyn King. Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers. New York, NY: WW Norton, 2020.