- Non-stationary reflexive situations are characterized by radical uncertainty
- Radical uncertainty cannot be resolved through probablistic thinking
- People cope rather than optimize
- Cognitive biases help navigate uncertainty
- Narratives should be credible and coherent but not necessarily true
- Narratives enable us to act decisively in conditions of uncertainty
- Practical knowledge can be found by focusing on issues, rules, analysis, and conclusions.
- Different kinds of uncertainty
- Volatile environments motivate us to avoid uncertainty
- Narratives generate real-world effects.
- Shiller - Narrative Economics
Kay, John, and Mervyn King. Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers. New York, NY: WW Norton, 2020.