Strategic Inflection Points Develop over Four Stages

Strategic inflection points develop across four stages: hype, dismissive, emergent, and maturity. In the hype state, the change is loudly proclaimed, creating a bubble and “land-grab” mentality among true believers. This typically leads to disaster, as these competitors underestimate the collective consequences of their actions. This provokes dismissal, in which a handful of entrants survive and set the foundation of the future. This is where the greatest opportunity lies. Then, in the emergent phase, stable players begin to see how the world is changing due to the inflection point. This is followed by maturity, in which the change is absorbed into everyday assumptions. Those who were unable to adjust suffer, while those who anticipated the change can thrive.


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Citations

McGrath, Rita Gunther. Seeing around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business before They Happen. Boston, Massachusetts: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2019.


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