- Trends are manifestations of sustained change
- Future trends emerge when a fundamental human need is met by a new enabling technology.
- Inflection points reveal themselves first at the edges
- Machines act as they are programmed to act
Barriers to spotting trends
- Change is disorienting because it is constant
- Our judgment is biased by the needs and restrictions of the present.
- Market research
- Protect dissent - To overcome our “belief bias,” we must engage in deliberate disagreement
- We understimate the importance of things not directly relevant to us
Methods and frameworks
- Amy Webb’s method for finding the future
- CIPHER method for trendspotting
- Think about the future across multiple planes and timezones
- Market research is a poor tool for trendspotting